What happened?
Polymarket bettors put a 25% chance on the U.S. government shutdown lasting until at least November 16, which would make it the longest in history. Other bettors think it will end sooner, with notable shares predicting late October or early November. At the same time, major crypto CEOs are set to meet with Senate Democrats to talk about market-structure legislation amid the political stalemate.
Who does this affect?
The shutdown hits federal workers and anyone who relies on government services, and it also creates broader economic uncertainty. It directly affects the crypto industry because lawmakers and industry leaders are negotiating rules that could limit decentralized finance and wallet development. Investors, exchanges, and developers all face increased regulatory uncertainty and the risk of delayed policy decisions.
Why does this matter?
A prolonged shutdown could delay or derail crypto legislation, leaving markets without clear rules and increasing short-term volatility. That uncertainty may push investment decisions and trading behavior toward caution, weighing on liquidity and price stability. If restrictive rules are eventually adopted—or if regulation is stalled—innovation could move overseas or be slowed, both of which would reshape market dynamics and investor sentiment.