What happened?
U.S. President Donald Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao after his 2023 guilty plea, and CZ publicly thanked supporters and teased a book. Polymarket bettors briefly pushed the odds of his returning to Binance from about 14% up to 82% before the market later settled around 36%. The news follows Binance’s earlier $4 billion resolution and Zhao’s $50 million fine under the previous settlement.
Who does this affect?
This touches Binance users, employees and BNB token holders who might see changes in leadership direction or confidence in the platform. It also matters to crypto investors and traders more broadly, plus regulators and competing exchanges watching shifts in enforcement and industry dynamics. Market bettors and prediction platforms like Polymarket are directly affected by swings in perceived probability of CZ’s return.
Why does this matter?
A presidential pardon can lower perceived regulatory risk for Binance and could boost short-term investor confidence and BNB prices, but the uncertainty about CZ’s actual return still creates volatility. The existence of the large forfeiture and fines means legal and compliance questions aren’t fully resolved, so markets may react to both optimism and lingering risk. Overall, expect sharper price moves and shifting risk premiums in crypto assets tied to Binance while traders reassess governance and regulatory exposure.