What happened?
Polymarket bettors now mostly expect the U.S. government shutdown to last until October 15 or later, with 43% picking that outcome. Another 35% think it will end between October 10–14, while smaller shares expect earlier dates. The poll follows Congress failing to pass spending bills and the government officially entering a shutdown, leaving resolution uncertain.
Who does this affect?
Federal employees face furloughs or potential layoffs, and contractors and agencies could see work and payments delayed. Benefit recipients and people who rely on government services may experience interruptions or slowdowns. It also impacts market participants and industries watching policy timing, including crypto firms and prediction-market users whose plans depend on congressional action.
Why does this matter?
A prolonged shutdown increases uncertainty that can boost volatility across stocks, bonds, crypto, and prediction markets. Delays in legislation and regulatory work can stall policy clarity for sectors like crypto, slowing investment and product rollouts. That knock-on effect can weaken consumer confidence and economic activity, putting additional pressure on asset prices and trading behavior.