What happened?
Polymarket is set to reopen to U.S. users after nearly four years, having acquired QCX for $112 million and secured a CFTC Designated Contract Market license and a no-action letter that could let it relaunch as soon as October 2. It left the U.S. in January 2022 after enforcement actions and a $1.4 million penalty but kept growing overseas, processing over $6 billion in bets in the first half of 2025 and famously predicting the 2024 election outcome. The company also pulled in major funding and high-profile advisers, positioning itself for rapid U.S. expansion.
Who does this affect?
U.S. retail bettors and institutional traders stand to regain access to Polymarket’s prediction markets, while rival platforms like Kalshi and traditional sportsbooks face renewed competition for liquidity and users. Regulators at the federal and state level will be watching closely, and markets in countries where Polymarket remains restricted (France, Belgium, Thailand, Singapore) will still be impacted by ongoing limitations. Investors, partners like X/Grok, and backers such as Founders Fund and 1789 Capital are also directly affected by how the relaunch changes growth and valuation prospects.
Why does this matter?
Polymarket’s return could meaningfully shift market dynamics by pulling trading volume and liquidity back to a major on-chain player, intensifying competition with Kalshi and putting pressure on sportsbooks that already compete for event-based bets. Its DCM status, big fundraising, and incentives like a 4% yield on some positions could accelerate adoption, drive higher volumes, and push valuation talk toward the $10 billion range. That surge in activity will likely trigger more regulatory scrutiny and legal fights, creating volatility but also new opportunities for traders, investors, and tech partners across crypto and betting markets.