What happened?
A Polymarket poll shows 74% of bettors now expect the U.S. government shutdown to last until October 15 or later. That’s a big jump from October 2, when only 43% thought it would stretch that long. Fewer bettors believe the shutdown will end between October 10–14, and lawmakers still haven’t agreed on a funding bill.
Who does this affect?
Federal workers and contractors are at risk of furloughs or mass layoffs if funding isn’t restored. Everyday people who rely on government services and benefits could face delays or disruptions. Businesses and sectors that depend on stable government policy—like crypto and blockchain—also feel the uncertainty.
Why does this matter?
A prolonged shutdown raises economic risk and can increase market volatility as investors worry about growth and spending. Threats of layoffs and stalled policy decisions can hurt consumer demand and corporate earnings, which markets tend to punish. In crypto and digital assets, political gridlock delays regulatory clarity and can amplify price swings and trading opportunities in the short term.