What happened?
JPMorgan says the deleveraging in Bitcoin perpetual futures is largely over and that Bitcoin sits below a volatility-adjusted fair value versus gold, implying potential upside to roughly $170,000 in 6–12 months. The analysts point to massive October liquidations and smaller November shocks but conclude perp-driven forced selling has mostly passed. Big firms are also signaling growing adoption, with Charles Schwab planning to offer Bitcoin trading in 2026, which supports the bullish view.
Who does this affect?
Traders and speculators using perpetual futures and high leverage are most affected because lower leverage reduces the chance of future forced liquidations. Institutional investors and asset managers could increase allocations if Bitcoin looks cheaper vs. gold on a risk-adjusted basis. Retail holders and ETF investors may see bigger price moves and more product options as institutions bring more capital and broader trading access.
Why does this matter?
If JPMorgan’s thesis proves right, markets could see large inflows and a re-rating of Bitcoin’s market cap toward a bigger share of gold’s private investment, which would drive significant price appreciation. With perp deleveraging largely behind us and volatility dynamics improving, the risk of sudden, liquidation-driven crashes should fall, making Bitcoin more attractive to cautious institutional money. That shift would boost liquidity, trading volumes, and institutional product launches, reshaping allocations across crypto, equities, and gold.