What happened?
Gemini is planning to launch prediction market contracts and has applied to the CFTC to become a designated contract market. If approved, the exchange would offer event-based derivatives on outcomes like economic, political, financial and sports forecasts. The move was reported by Bloomberg and Gemini reportedly wants to roll the products out as soon as possible, though regulatory approval could take months or years.
Who does this affect?
This affects retail and institutional traders who want to trade outcome-based contracts and could draw users away from current leaders like Kalshi and Polymarket. Other platforms — including Coinbase, Robinhood, CME and existing crypto exchanges — will face new competition as they also eye prediction markets. Regulators and the CFTC are central players too, since their approval and oversight will shape how these products are offered and used.
Why does this matter?
A major entrant like Gemini, backed by a strong IPO and crypto user base, could quickly shift market share and increase liquidity in prediction markets. More competition should spur innovation, better pricing and higher volumes, but it may also trigger tougher regulatory scrutiny and higher compliance costs for the whole industry. Overall, Gemini’s move could accelerate mainstream adoption of event-based derivatives and change where traders and platforms allocate capital.