What happened?
Markets are holding their breath ahead of the FOMC decision, with Polymarket pricing a 98% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Bitcoin is trading around $113,000 and Ethereum near $4,000 with low volatility, while Solana and XRP are roughly steady. Analysts say a dovish outcome could spark a relief rally, but any hawkish hints could quickly reverse gains because liquidity is thin and leverage is high.
Who does this affect?
This matters for crypto traders and investors who will react quickly to the Fed’s wording and Powell’s press conference. Leverage-heavy traders and exchange markets with thin liquidity are especially exposed to sharp moves on any surprise. Broader risk-asset investors and altcoin holders also stand to see short-term swings as market positioning shifts around expected policy changes.
Why does this matter?
If the Fed is dovish and cuts rates as expected, it could lift risk appetite and push Bitcoin toward the roughly $117,000 target analysts mentioned, and lift major altcoins by a few percent. Conversely, any hint of hesitation or a hawkish tone could trigger quick sell-offs given elevated leverage and fragile liquidity, amplifying volatility. Overall, the FOMC outcome and Powell’s guidance will likely set near-term direction for crypto prices and trader sentiment, shaping where money flows in the market.