What happened?
Ethereum dropped about 3% in the last 24 hours as traders nervously awaited today’s Fed rate decision, which markets expect will be a 25bps cut. President Trump’s surprise move to double tariffs on Chinese imports has introduced uncertainty that could make the Fed rethink or delay that cut. At the same time ETH trading volume is up roughly 10% and a large share of the circulating supply is moving, while price recently found support around $3,800 and faced resistance near $4,200.
Who does this affect?
Short-term crypto traders and investors in ETH are most immediately exposed to the volatility from the Fed decision and tariff shock. Macro traders and institutions watching interest rate signals will also be affected since their risk positioning could shift quickly. Early-stage projects and presale investors (like those in Pepenode) could see large gains or losses if a macro surprise amplifies crypto price moves.
Why does this matter?
If the Fed goes ahead with the expected 25bps cut, risk appetite would likely rise and could push ETH back toward all-time highs — analysts even point to a potential move toward $6,000 under favorable macro conditions. Conversely, a Fed pause or reversal because of tariff-driven inflation risks could trigger a sharp sell-off and wider crypto market weakness. With elevated volumes and big on-chain activity, any macro surprise is likely to produce faster, larger price swings and make both upside opportunities and downside risks more pronounced.