What happened?
Bipartisan talks on the CLARITY Act restarted in the Senate even as a prolonged government shutdown drags on, with leaders like Senators Boozman and Booker working to finish parts of the bill and aiming for a committee vote before Thanksgiving. Some senators say progress is real, but others warn the legislation isn’t ready and that a public hearing is needed. Prediction markets and several lawmakers now see a much lower chance the bill becomes law this year because the shutdown and election politics are stealing momentum.
Who does this affect?
Crypto companies, exchanges, and institutional investors are directly affected because the bill would decide whether assets fall under the CFTC or the SEC and shape compliance rules. Ordinary Americans are indirectly affected too, since the shutdown is threatening federal pay and benefits and pulling lawmakers away from policy work. Startups and smaller market participants face the most immediate pain from prolonged uncertainty while big industry players press lawmakers behind closed doors.
Why does this matter?
Clear legislation would likely boost institutional flows, enable new products like ETFs, and reduce legal headaches by setting which regulator oversees which assets, which is broadly bullish for market stability and growth. Conversely, delays and the shutdown are increasing short-term volatility, depressing fundraising and product approvals, and making investors more risk-averse. So passage would probably be a long-term positive for liquidity and adoption, while gridlock keeps markets choppy and sensitive to political headlines.