What happened?
Bitcoin dropped about 7.7% this week to around $102,000 and is testing its 50‑week simple moving average near $102,980 for the fourth time. Sellers are dominating near‑term price action with a descending trendline producing rejections, while ETF outflows of roughly $2.3 billion and plunging hash prices are putting pressure on miners and treasuries. Large on‑chain transfers and exchange deposits signal more liquidation risk unless Bitcoin can close the week above the critical $103,200 level.
Who does this affect?
Short‑term and leveraged traders are most exposed because the weekly close and trendline will likely decide the next directional move. Miners and mining firms face tighter margins as hash price approaches break‑even, pushing some operators to pivot to AI services or sell assets to cover costs. ETF managers, corporate treasuries and big holders also feel the squeeze since large outflows and transfers to exchanges raise the chance of further sell‑pressure.
Why does this matter?
If Bitcoin fails to hold support and breaks below $100,000, we could see an accelerated drop toward $98k–$95k and even the $90k–$92k CME gap, which would amplify volatility and forced liquidations. That would reduce liquidity, strain miners and ETFs, and worsen market sentiment, potentially triggering broader risk‑off moves across crypto. Conversely, a successful weekly close above $103,200 and a breakout of the descending trendline would likely restore buying momentum and keep the path toward $106k–$110k intact, so the next 48–72 hours are critical for market direction.