What happened? VanEck says Bitcoin could hit $180K as its price increasingly tracks global M2 liquidity.
VanEck’s CEO and analysts reiterated a bullish $180K target, arguing Bitcoin’s long-term price moves correlate with global money supply growth. They point to a roughly 0.5 correlation since 2014 and a doubling of top-currency liquidity from about $50T to $100T as supportive context. Futures open interest and record cash collateral also play a big role, so market structure and leverage are key to whether that target is reached.
Who does this affect? Investors, institutions, and futures market participants tied to Bitcoin, ETFs, and mining firms.
This outlook matters to retail and institutional holders, ETF issuers, miners, and traders because it frames Bitcoin as a growing neutral reserve asset linked to fiat liquidity. VanEck suggests that owning less than ~2% of your portfolio in Bitcoin is implicitly a short position versus its growing share of global money. Futures traders and market makers are especially exposed since changes in open interest and leverage have explained a large portion of recent price moves.
Why does this matter? A stronger link to global liquidity and heavy futures participation could amplify price moves and shift market allocations.
If monetary expansion or softer macro prints reappear, capital could rotate into Bitcoin and push prices toward $130K–$180K, prompting portfolio rebalancing across institutions. That setup raises upside potential but also the risk of sharp volatility from futures deleveraging, meaning sustained rallies depend on institutional participation and leverage dynamics. Overall, markets could see increased flows from cash and gold into crypto and a notable re-pricing of risk across portfolios.