What happened? Polymarket bettors largely expect Congress to pass a funding bill by late November.
A recent Polymarket poll shows 84% of bettors think a funding bill will pass by November 30, while only 30% expect it by October 31 and just 1% think it will happen by October 15. The poll comes as the government shutdown enters its third week after lawmakers missed the October 1 deadline and thousands of federal workers have already been furloughed. Political leaders have warned of deeper cuts and targeted program cuts if the impasse continues.
Who does this affect? Federal workers, lawmakers, and stakeholders in policy-sensitive markets are directly affected.
Thousands of federal employees face furloughs or layoffs while lawmakers deal with mounting political pressure to reach a deal. The standoff also puts pressure on policymakers and draws scrutiny to the administration’s priorities, including its stance on crypto. Prediction-market participants and investors tracking policy developments are affected too, since the timing and terms of any deal will shape budgets and regulations.
Why does this matter? Market uncertainty from a prolonged shutdown and political signals could move prediction markets, stocks, and crypto.
A prolonged shutdown raises economic risks that can pressure short-term Treasury yields and equities tied to government spending while driving activity in prediction markets. Uncertainty over possible targeted cuts and renewed focus on the president’s crypto ties can shift regulatory expectations and increase volatility in digital-asset markets. Traders and investors may reprice risk across markets until lawmakers deliver a clear funding path, making near-term forecasting harder.