What happened? Ethereum reclaimed $4,500 as traders ramped up bets on Fed rate cuts.
Ethereum has reclaimed the $4,500 level, gaining about 0.54% in the past 24 hours with a market cap near $544 billion. That move came as traders priced in likely Federal Reserve rate cuts — the CME FedWatch now shows roughly a 97% chance of a 25bp cut in October and 85% by December — and markets shrugged off a delayed jobs report. At the same time, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan warned against cutting too quickly, and rising tariffs could still push inflation higher.
Who does this affect? Retail and institutional crypto investors, ETH stakers, DeFi projects, and speculative traders.
Retail and institutional investors could rotate more capital into Ethereum and ETH-based products as lower rates make risk assets more attractive. ETH stakers benefit because staking yields (around 3–4%) look comparatively better when bond yields fall, encouraging longer-term on-chain participation. DeFi platforms, NFTs, and even meme presales like Maxi Doge stand to draw more liquidity and attention during a risk-on environment.
Why does this matter? Easier monetary policy can boost ETH flows and prices, but risks could reverse the move.
Lower interest rates tend to funnel liquidity into growth and crypto assets, potentially accelerating inflows into ETH, staking, ETFs, and DeFi and supporting higher prices and on-chain activity. Technically, holding above $4,500 inside a rising channel points to further upside toward roughly $4,675–$4,765 if support near $4,440–$4,420 holds. However, renewed inflation pressures, a shift in Fed messaging, or a break below $4,375 could trigger downside toward $4,200 or worse, so risk management remains important.