US Services PMI Slips to 50, Fueling Rate-Cut Bets and a Bitcoin Rally Toward $150K

What happened? U.S. services PMI unexpectedly fell to 50 in September, signaling a sharp slowdown.

The ISM services PMI slipped to 50 with Business Activity at 49.9 and New Orders weakening sharply, showing service-sector growth is stalling. That surprise slowdown, combined with softer labor data and core PCE at 2.9%, has pushed markets to price in a higher chance of near-term Fed rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk significantly since the pandemic peak, tilting the policy backdrop toward easing.

Who does this affect? Investors and traders in risk assets—especially Bitcoin and institutional participants—are the most impacted.

Institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been strong, Bitcoin open interest hit record highs, and options/futures activity shows heavy leverage, so crypto traders are directly exposed. Equity and bond markets also react to shifting rate-cut expectations, meaning broad risk-on positioning benefits from this pivot. Retail and long-term holders matter too, because a rising share of long-term BTC holders and steady spot demand can make any rally more durable.

Why does this matter? A move toward easier policy can boost liquidity and fuel a big risk-on rally, raising the odds of Bitcoin pushing toward $150K or beyond.

Monetary easing plus the possibility of fiscal stimulus would inject more liquidity and historically lifts speculative assets, making big upside moves more likely. With strong ETF inflows, record leverage, and technical breakouts above $120K, analysts and banks are now projecting much higher price targets for Bitcoin. But the large buildup of futures open interest also raises the risk of rapid volatility and sharp corrections if momentum reverses.

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