What happened?
Bitcoin jumped above $117,000, up more than 4% after U.S. ADP data showed a surprise loss of 32,000 private payrolls in September. That weak jobs print pushed markets to price in a much higher chance of Fed rate cuts, with the CME FedWatch tool showing about a 99% probability of a 25 bps cut. The move reignited bullish momentum, with technical levels and on‑chain indicators pointing to a potential Q4 rally.
Who does this affect?
Crypto investors and traders feel it most directly because higher rate‑cut odds tend to boost risk assets like Bitcoin. Institutional buyers and large “whale” holders also matter, since spot demand and big address accumulation can drive bigger price moves. Macro traders and dollar‑sensitive investors are affected too, because a dovish Fed outlook weakens the dollar and shifts capital into assets outside traditional bonds and cash.
Why does this matter?
If the Fed does shift dovish, a weaker dollar and cheaper borrowing can push more money into Bitcoin and other risk assets, potentially fueling a sustained Q4 rally and even lifting targets toward the $160k–$200k range that some on‑chain models suggest. Strong spot demand and whale accumulation add real buying pressure, but key support around $108k and resistance near $120k mean volatility and pullbacks are still possible. In short, changing rate expectations could reshape flows across markets, boosting crypto upside while increasing short‑term swings for traders and allocators.